Monte Carlo
Let’s say you offer a good option to invest cash or in any instrument. First, you must gather all available information on this topic, it is even sufficient information that is publicly available on the internet (having your ears will hear). Analyze information collected, discard all the excess unnecessary information, and most importantly at this stage to collect or make a list of all risks, even fantastic, until the arrival of extraterrestrials. ic.. Because of the rules of the Pareto is known, that the smaller the probability of occurrence of a given risk, the more likely the risk will occur. What we do on the basis of these cumulative risks. We take and we begin to count how risk events will impact on our financial project plan. To do this we will calculate what effect our project to increase taxes to fifty percent decline in sales to fifty percent reduction in product price, and up to fifty percent. Governor Cuomo often says this.
This method allows us to analyze the sensitivity of our project to these changes, experience shows that (once again want to remind you) an increase in workers’ wages do not affect the sensitivity of the project. Hence, the conclusions are paying more to their employees, they will bring you good results on your project. Here, after analyzing the sensitivity of the project, you can try and Monte Carlo, that is, to calculate the probability of the outcome of our project. C how likely you will be able to earn as much money then, and with what probability you will be able to earn as much money then. A good way to tell roulette. Now, to the fullest of our security, we must calculate alternative project, and compare the two projects together.
How to compare the two projects together, to look at the net present value, and who has the most, that and choose, no that’s not enough, here we need financial analysis of projects. Check and compare as many as possible indicators of each other. This discounted payback period and internal rate of return and profit taxes, income before taxes and so on. In the process of this approach to your project, you will see the error of the project, its strengths and weaknesses. That is why foreign practice shows that if the manager himself was not involved in the development of the project, he is in the bank for a loan not even make sense to handle. And as we have with these things? Constantly running into ads, you need a business plan for refueling, cheburechnoy and so on, people are willing to pay for the finished project. And how can you get a finished project? If, for template designs are not done in every business its internal rate of return, their lending rates, and so on. So gentlemen, better hire a competent financial analysts, their wages are not you utyanet, and if utyanet, then it is better and do not engage in investment, better go and get a job, and the available funds in the bank at eleven percent per annum.
